Current 1-6: Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Rubby, and Clay/Workman Potential Trade Candidates: Peavy, Why you would: Sox are still within striking distance of the division or wild card spot, but want to recoup some value of a veteran picture to a team that doesnt have the same minor league pitching depth as the sox. Trading peavy and inserting a kid could have minimal negative impacts with a big potential to catch lightning in a bottle. Why you wouldn’t: Peavy is a known commodity. You can almost pencil in the results.. 6 innings, 2-3 runs, 3 walks. 110 pitches. Keeping Peavy is good incase another pitcher goes down with an injury, because all too often have we seen an apparent surplus turn into a nightmare quickly. If you keep Peavy and make the playoffs would he be starting a game 3? or would that be Clay/Workman/Rubby? the hottest of the 3.
Lackey: Why you would: Most trade value, Consistent and Effective all year long. Major League minimum salary next year if he doesnt retire. Not a home grown player, so trading him does not have the same sentimental affect like trading Lester would. And arguably you may get more for Lackey especially if that bonus option year is available to any team that acquires him. Why you wouldn’t: He’s you true ace. He just fired 9 innings of shut-out ball and wanted to go out for the 10th. Why trade him now if you think you can contend either this year or next. A kid may produce as well or better than Peavy, but not Lackey. That would be asking for the moon. Lackey.. like Nava.. is a feel good story, and it has this underlying bad karma if disturbed. But if the price is right, and the sox want to go Homegrown while getting a considerable prospect in return, then it may be it is time to say goodbye to one of the John’s on this team.
Lester: Why you would: Sox become obvious sellers and are convinced that they could not resign him, looking to maximize their return. There is also the potential of them trading him and then actually resigning him at the end of the season, but I dont have any statistics to back that up if it has happened before. Trading Lester sends a message that you will not over pay players. Lester is solid, and deserves a big pay day, but is it from the Red Sox. This isnt the same GM that sent away Pedro and Damon, but its the same philosophy. We let Ellsbury go to the Yanks and we see where that got us. I wonder what the outfield stituation would be had we had Ellsbury instead of Sizemore to start the year. He’d probably had collided with JBJ and broken his ribs again. Why you wouldn’t: Lester is our guy. Our Boston Chrome. Our cancer survivor. Our Mentor, our constant. Why would we let that go, especially if we have the money. The talent behind him is unproven and untested. They can turn into Daniel Bards, Craig Hansens, Kason Gabbards. Or they can be our land somewhere in between Pedro and Derek Lowe. When will we know? If we keep Lester, next years rotation will look like this: Lester, Lackey, Clay, Doubront, Workman/Rubby with Ranaudo/Webster/Owens/ect stuck. Not trading Lester means you can make a big package of Prospects like the one we sent to SD- Casey Kelly and co. But who are we landing, Stanton? Kemp? Alex Gordon? I’m not sure. I guess its more of a possibility of being a red sox lifer that is more important. Make up for the Clemens and Hanley Ramirez judgements.
The question remains how to get Webster/workman/Ranaudo/Owens/rubby incorportated into this team in the near future. Assuming Webster and Workman can mesh as relievers until a rotation spot opens.. that just leaves one rotation spot next year, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Clay and Rubby with the rest as depth. And a year later Lackey would be off the books and you could insert another kid in 2 years. Trading Peavy now would just expedite the process, while trading Lackey now would insure that next year 2 big slots in the rotation are available. Lester, Doubront, Clay, Rubby and Workman/Webster.. could be epic, but is the depth behind that of Ranaudo/Owens/Barnes enough to keep you from worrying. If/when someone like Clay or Doubront or anyone needs a trip to the DL would the sox trade for another veteran step in, or can we trust a Matt Barnes in the Majors for more than a month next year. Moneyball wise.. the answer for me is yes.. and the first good trade to get Lackey out of town would be a bold move. A move that I could live with and be excited to watch at Fenway, on TV, in the news. I fully expect JBJ like struggles, but I dream of Xander/Holt like returns. Especially when their arms are young and fast. Baseball has a hard on for homers, but I love MPH. All that makes Daniel Bards funk a sad thing. I was a supporter of Papelbon in the Rotation back in the day.. and I admit I do miss him now.. not that I dont prefer Koji in almost every way possible.. Its just the same feeling I get when I think of Nomar.. These are your role models.. your idols.. your gods… And although you may respect them.. its the hard truth of saying that so and so is not our Messiah. Thats why trading Lester could be ok.. either you believe in him or you dont.. but having a kid like Owen in the minors makes you think you have the next replacement.. we replaced Clemens.. Pedro.. Beckett.. we won a few rings.. There is no right answer.. there are no perfect predictions.. The 25 man roster is the only chance to let hope play… otherwise we might as well let the rest of the AAA team play for the Oakland A’s.. i once went to a Portland Seadogs game that featured an OF of Ellsbury, Moss and David Murphy.. and i often missed Murphy when he was with Texas.. and Moss has produced well finally with the A’s.. I also liked Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick.. and Kalish and Rizzo.. and Masterson.. No point.. its just like for the uniform.. I wish these men good luck where ever they are.. but this doesnt stop me from day dreaming for the upcoming Sox Dynasty.. Xander.. Betts.. JBJ.. Owen… Peddy.. Vasquez… ect.. The question is.. who do you want in 5 years.. a well decorated Lester.. or the possibility of your own Big three like Zito, Hudson, Mulder… that was replaced by Haren and Harden that was replaced with Sonny Gray… you know its like can we have it all…