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06/20/2014

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Painting the future of the Red Sox Rotation; This year and beyond

Image Current 1-6: Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, Rubby, and Clay/Workman Potential Trade Candidates: Peavy, Why you would: Sox are still within striking distance of the division or wild card spot, but want to recoup some value of a veteran picture to a team that doesnt have the same minor league pitching depth as the sox. Trading peavy and inserting a kid could have minimal negative impacts with a big potential to catch lightning in a bottle. Why you wouldn’t: Peavy is a known commodity. You can almost pencil in the results.. 6 innings, 2-3 runs, 3 walks. 110 pitches. Keeping Peavy is good incase another pitcher goes down with an injury, because all too often have we seen an apparent surplus turn into a nightmare quickly. If you keep Peavy and make the playoffs would he be starting a game 3? or would that be Clay/Workman/Rubby? the hottest of the 3.

Lackey: Why you would: Most trade value, Consistent and Effective all year long. Major League minimum salary next year if he doesnt retire. Not a home grown player, so trading him does not have the same sentimental affect like trading Lester would. And arguably you may get more for Lackey especially if that bonus option year is available to any team that acquires him. Why you wouldn’t: He’s you true ace. He just fired 9 innings of shut-out ball and wanted to go out for the 10th. Why trade him now if you think you can contend either this year or next. A kid may produce as well or better than Peavy, but not Lackey. That would be asking for the moon. Lackey.. like Nava.. is a feel good story, and it has this underlying bad karma if disturbed. But if the price is right, and the sox want to go Homegrown while getting a considerable prospect in return, then it may be it is time to say goodbye to one of the John’s on this team.

Lester: Why you would: Sox become obvious sellers and are convinced that they could not resign him, looking to maximize their return. There is also the potential of them trading him and then actually resigning him at the end of the season, but I dont have any statistics to back that up if it has happened before. Trading Lester sends a message that you will not over pay players. Lester is solid, and deserves a big pay day, but is it from the Red Sox. This isnt the same GM that sent away Pedro and Damon, but its the same philosophy. We let Ellsbury go to the Yanks and we see where that got us. I wonder what the outfield stituation would be had we had Ellsbury instead of Sizemore to start the year. He’d probably had collided with JBJ and broken his ribs again. Why you wouldn’t: Lester is our guy. Our Boston Chrome. Our cancer survivor. Our Mentor, our constant. Why would we let that go, especially if we have the money. The talent behind him is unproven and untested. They can turn into Daniel Bards, Craig Hansens, Kason Gabbards. Or they can be our land somewhere in between Pedro and Derek Lowe. When will we know? If we keep Lester, next years rotation will look like this: Lester, Lackey, Clay, Doubront, Workman/Rubby with Ranaudo/Webster/Owens/ect stuck. Not trading Lester means you can make a big package of Prospects like the one we sent to SD- Casey Kelly and co. But who are we landing, Stanton? Kemp? Alex Gordon? I’m not sure. I guess its more of a possibility of being a red sox lifer that is more important. Make up for the Clemens and Hanley Ramirez judgements.

The question remains how to get Webster/workman/Ranaudo/Owens/rubby incorportated into this team in the near future. Assuming Webster and Workman can mesh as relievers until a rotation spot opens.. that just leaves one rotation spot next year, Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Clay and Rubby with the rest as depth. And a year later Lackey would be off the books and you could insert another kid in 2 years. Trading Peavy now would just expedite the process, while trading Lackey now would insure that next year 2 big slots in the rotation are available. Lester, Doubront, Clay, Rubby and Workman/Webster..  could be epic, but is the depth behind that of Ranaudo/Owens/Barnes enough to keep you from worrying. If/when someone like Clay or Doubront or anyone needs a trip to the DL would the sox trade for another veteran step in, or can we trust a Matt Barnes in the Majors for more than a month next year. Moneyball wise.. the answer for me is yes.. and the first good trade to get Lackey out of town would be a bold move. A move that I could live with and be excited to watch at Fenway, on TV, in the news. I fully expect JBJ like struggles, but I dream of Xander/Holt like returns. Especially when their arms are young and fast. Baseball has a hard on for homers, but I love MPH. All that makes Daniel Bards funk a sad thing. I was a supporter of Papelbon in the Rotation back in the day.. and I admit I do miss him now.. not that I dont prefer Koji in almost every way possible.. Its just the same feeling I get when I think of Nomar.. These are your role models.. your idols.. your gods… And although you may respect them.. its the hard truth of saying that so and so is not our Messiah. Thats why trading Lester could be ok.. either you believe in him or you dont.. but having a kid like Owen in the minors makes you think you have the next replacement.. we replaced Clemens.. Pedro.. Beckett.. we won a few rings.. There is no right answer.. there are no perfect predictions.. The 25 man roster is the only chance to let hope play… otherwise we might as well let the rest of the AAA team play for the Oakland A’s.. i once went to a Portland Seadogs game that featured an OF of Ellsbury, Moss and David Murphy.. and i often missed Murphy when he was with Texas.. and Moss has produced well finally with the A’s.. I also liked Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick.. and Kalish and Rizzo.. and Masterson.. No point.. its just like for the uniform.. I wish these men good luck where ever they are.. but this doesnt stop me from day dreaming for the upcoming Sox Dynasty.. Xander.. Betts.. JBJ.. Owen… Peddy.. Vasquez… ect.. The question is.. who do you want in 5 years.. a well decorated Lester.. or  the possibility of your own Big three like Zito, Hudson, Mulder… that was replaced by Haren and Harden that was replaced with Sonny Gray… you know its like can we have it all…

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06/17/2014

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Fever Pitch 2.0

rubby

 

Photo from ‘s weei article: http://fullcount.weei.com/?p=73509

Problem: Who’s on the rubber? A struggling veteran pitcher, or an inexperienced kid.
Can Clay become to the sox this year a better version of what Schilling was as a brief stint as relief pitcher. In my eyes, it’s either that, or Doubront has to find a role in the pen, because if the sox want to content they have to trust Rubby and Workman with a greater role. They can’t stash this talent anymore in the minors, and its time to let a veteran pitcher go. Whether thats trade Peavy (which im against, because he’s in the same mold of true ball players like gomes and holt, although his last start was anything but comfortable, he did leave the game in line for the win if it wasnt for a Breslow blunder.) Lackey is one of our most consistent. Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Workman and Rubby, with Clay spot starting and Doubront in the pen or Workman in the pen. Maybe it’s time to get rid of Breslow, I think he was more lucky than talented, but its up to him to prove me wrong. Badenhop has been brilliant and so has Miller (as long as he’s not pitching in extra innings) and Tazawa has been solid (the supposed heir to koji).

Speaking of Koji. We gotta use this guy until his arm falls off. He is in the midst of another potential historic year, and if we can bring him out, not only as our closer but as that almost daniel bard, whenever you need him, use him, type of player. If the sox arent winning games, they arent a lot of save opportunities, so heck if its the 6th inning an on, get koji in there in a close game, not breslow.

PS. Sadly, I’ll make this another thread, but for most of the reasons above.. this will be Lester’s last year. Dont pay him over 20 million for 5 years. He should either do similar to a pedroia deal like 7 years for 15 a year, make him a lifer, or let him walk. He’s not going to get better with age. We got 2 rings with him. You have young talent in need of rotation spots, talent that if they were on the A’s or another contending moneyball team, would be in the starting rotation. Look at CC Sabathia. He had an epic run of dominance far superior to Lester, and now he’s not cracking 90mph with regularity. I admit that Lester has the better pitching frame and the sox have the money to pay him, but I want the rotation of Owens, Rubby, Webster, Doubront, and either Clay or another veteran to be here come 2016/17.

Plus imagine an infield of middlebrooks, xander, pedroia, shaw, and betts/holt being our Zobrist.

Outfield: JBJ, Victorino, Nava, Brentz/Betts/Holt/Margot

I like where this team is headed.

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09/16/2013

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Beantown, Red Sox

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11:11

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Bring out the brooms, the Red Sox just swept the Yankees in their last 3-game series at Fenway Park. Before the game, they honored Mariano Rivera, who unless they make the postseason, made his last visit to Fenway as an active player. But this really isn’t a case of the Mo the Merrier, lol, usually you try to avoid seeing the other teams closer, even if he has choked recently. The bigger picture here is that the Red Sox are running away with the division, a year after finishing in Last Place in the formidable AL East.

With another loss by the Rays and Rangers today, the Yanks are still in contention of both wild card spots. Who would the sox rather face in the first round of the ALDS is quite another story. We all seem to conclude that it will be a Red Sox v Tigers ALCS, but that’s counting your chickens before they hatch, all we can submit is that this is a farm-raised organic team… Literally.

Look at all the homegrown players that are apart of this years success: Lester, Buchholz, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts. Ellsbury and Bradley Jf. This is a solid core, part of the winning mold that Clay demonstrated today going by going 11-0 for the first time since Clemens. Lucky 11. It is a shame that he had to spend 3 months dealing with a sore neck from ‘sleeping with his baby weirdly?’ but if we are going to make it to the ALCS and match up with likely CY young apparent Max Scherzer, we need every ounce of our lucky 11 to go toe to toe with the Tremendous Tigers. Even though he was not at his best today, walking 4 and only striking out 3, besides an unearned run in the top of the 1st from what is usually a good pick-off move, he only permitted 2 hits to a rejuvenated yankee lineup, so kudos for that.

The next speculation we could have is how would you structure the playoff rotation.

In the ALDS, a best of 5 series, in a four man rotation, who do you want to pitch twice?

Clay, Lester, Lackey or Peavy. I’d say Lester, your opening day starter, who has been your workhorse all season and is finally turning the corner by using his cutter more selectively. Lester, Clay, Lackey and Peavy… no need for a game 5.. and hopefully no need for a game 4 because the Sox have seen the most pitches in baseball, a thousand more than the next patient team. We’re full of grinders and gamers and a lot of luck.

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09/08/2013

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Japan-easy

Koji Uehara 2013 Red Sox

Koji Uehara 2013 Red Sox

In his 63 1/3 innings this year, the right-hander has allowed just 29 hits (.133 opponents’ batting average) and nine walks (1.3 per nine innings) — with his 0.600 WHIP ranking, at this moment, as the lowest in major league history for a pitcher who worked at least 50 innings, besting the standard for greatness achieved by Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley with the A’s in 1989 (0.607). – Weei’s Alex Speier. (http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/09/06/koji-ueharas-long-unassuming-path-being-best-c)

As of the end of the first week of September, Koji has actualled pitched yet another scoreless inning lowering his WHIP to a microscopic 0.591. For those of you who do not know what WHIP stands for, it is [walks and hits per innings pitched]. So a WHIP at/or under 1.0 is considered very good, meaning for 9 innings of baseball you’re good for 9 hits/walks combined. To have a WHIP closer to 0.6 means you only give up 6 hits and walks combined per 9 innings which is crucial for a closer to be able to keep men off the base paths. He has been pitching with such Japan-ease, that I bet you he he’ll gain some MVP consideration, although we all know that the Detroit Tigers possess both the Reigning and Future Cy young and MVP winners. [see Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and now most likely Max Scherzer]. 

Koji and Papelbon Comparison

Koji and Papelbon Comparison

Now lets compare the two quickly.

In Papelbon’s arguably best year which was in 2006 where he placed second in the Rookie of the Year voting to non other than the great Verlander himself.

In 2006, the All-Star pitched to:

a 4-2 record with a 0.92 ERA in 68 innings pitched in 59 games, striking out 75, with a WHIP of 0.776.

Great numbers, He did a great job for 6 seasons posting a WHIP under 1.0 for 4 of the 6  seasons.

Koji on the other hand, 5 years older than Papelbon, in his Age 38 season is having one of the best season’s ever for a pitcher. Just ask Eck himself.

Koji has already pitched 64 innings to a tune of 1.12 ERA, 89 K’s, and a 0.591 WHIP

AND is in currently pitching his 5th consecutive year with a WHIP under 1.

All I can say is, Here’s to looking at you, kid. You’re doing great. I’ll donate all the money I’ll save this postseason on Migraine pills from having to see the sox NOT trot out Eric Gagne like relievers with the game on the line.

Just a reminder Gagne had a 6.75 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in the 20 inning rental that cost us Kason Gabbard, David Murphy and Engel Beltre.

I’m a firm believer that we could’ve looked more like the A’s and have an outfield/infield of Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Xander, Lowrie, Pedroia and Middlebrook playing 1st base maybe something similar to how we used Youk on our team. But that;s a completely different story. I got to see Moss, Murphy and Ellsbury in a Pawsox v Fishercats game over a half dozen years back when I was still in High School.

I just want to see Red Sox v. Tigers in this year’s ALCS, with maybe a Red Sox v. Dodgers World Series. Wouldn’t that be something. But if all else fails, Go Pirates!!